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Predictive Factors of Malaria in Travelers to Areas Where Malaria Is Endemic
Enrique Casalino, MD;
Jacques Le Bras, PhD;
Florence Chaussin, MD;
Anika Fichelle, MD;
Elisabeth Bouvet, PhD
Arch Intern Med. 2002;162:1625-1630.
Background The differentiation of malaria from other causes of fever is difficult.
The development of tools for rapid and specific clinical diagnosis is of paramount
importance for the identification of individuals infected with malaria.
Method A 4-year prospective study to identify the clinical and biological variables
associated with malaria included all patients suspected of having malaria
who presented in the emergency department (ED) of a French hospital.
Results Of 783 patients admitted to the ED with suspected malaria, 145 had positive
findings of a thick smear for Plasmodium species, mainly Plasmodium falciparum (90.3%). In univariate analysis, the following
12 variables were significantly associated with diagnosis of malaria: older
than 30 years, male sex, immigration to France from an area where malaria
is endemic, a visit to sub-Saharan Africa, insufficient antimalaria prophylaxis,
fever, chills, absence of diarrhea, a leukocyte count within the reference
range, thrombocytopenia, and increased lactate dehydrogenase and bilirubin
levels. In multivariate analysis, the factors predictive of malaria included
a visit to sub-Saharan Africa (odds ratio [OR], 7.7; 95% confidence interval
[CI], 2.8-21.3), a temperature of at least 38.5°C (OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 2.8-13.3),
chills (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.4-6.6), thrombocytopenia (OR, 16.5; 95% CI, 7.1-38.3),
and abnormally high total bilirubin levels (OR, 21.5; 95% CI, 6.4-72.5). However,
alone or combined, these features had insufficient sensitivity (95.0%) and
low specificity (55.0%) for the diagnosis of malaria.
Conclusions Malaria should be suspected in all patients presenting with complaints
after travel to an area where malaria is endemic, and these patients should
undergo blood microscopy.
From the Emergency Department (Drs Casalino, Chaussin, and Fichelle),
the Infectious and Tropical Diseases Unit A (Drs Casalino and Bouvet), and
the Laboratory of Parasitology and Centre National de Référence
pour la Chimiosensibilité du Paludisme (Dr Le Bras), Bichat-Claude
Bernard University Hospital, Paris, France. Dr Casalino is now with the Service
d'Accueil des Urgences, Hôpital Universitaire de Bicêtre, Bicêtre,
France.
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