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Evaluation of the Framingham Risk Score in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer–Norfolk Cohort—Invited Commentary
Michael J. Pencina, PhD;
Ralph B. D’Agostino, PhD
Arch Intern Med. 2008;168(11):1216-1218.
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Despite notable improvements in risk quantification and management, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity. A substantial proportion of CVD events is experienced by individuals below treatment thresholds established based on standard risk factors. This motivates researchers to look for new risk factors or markers that could further improve risk prediction.
The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) has been the most commonly used measure of performance for predictive models. It quantifies discrimination, defined as the ability of the model to separate subjects who will experience the event ("events") from those who will not ("nonevents"), or in the time-to-event context, to rank them according to their event times based on the predicted probabilities of event calculated at baseline. Notwithstanding the fact that the AUC remains a key measure of model performance, it is becoming . . . [Full Text of this Article]
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