This Article  • Full text  • PDF  • Send to a friend  • Save in My Folder  • Save to citation manager  • Permissions  Citing Articles  • Citation map  • Contact me when this article is cited  Related Content  • Related article  • Similar articles in this journal  Topic Collections  • Obesity  • Cardiovascular System  • Public Health, Other  • Cardiovascular Disease/ Myocardial Infarction  • Diabetes Mellitus  • Alert me on articles by topic  Social Bookmarking   What's this?

S. Jay Olshansky, PhD; Victoria Persky, MD

Arch Intern Med. 2008;168(3):261.

	Since this article does not have an abstract, we have provided the first 150 words of the full text and any section headings.

Peering into the future of the health and longevity of a population has been a subject of interest for centuries for actuaries and demographers who follow and forecast trends in these statistics. The method most often used to make such forecasts is to examine recent trends in observed health characteristics and mortality data in a selected population and then perform a linear extrapolation of past trends into the future under the premise that the future will be like the past. The predictive power of this method is limited when health and mortality conditions are in a state of flux, which is most often the case, but sometimes this is the only way to get a sense of what the future holds. However, every once in a while a novel source of data surfaces that makes it possible to peer into the future in . . . [Full Text of this Article]

AUTHOR INFORMATION


CiteULike    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati     What's this?

RELATED ARTICLE

Recent Trends in the Prevalence of Coronary Disease: A Population-Based Autopsy Study of Nonnatural Deaths
Peter N. Nemetz, Véronique L. Roger, Jeanine E. Ransom, Kent R. Bailey, William D. Edwards, and Cynthia L. Leibson
Arch Intern Med. 2008;168(3):264-270.
ABSTRACT | FULL TEXT