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Comparison of Exercise Test Scores and Physician Estimation in Determining Disease Probability
Michael Lipinski, BS;
Dat Do, MD;
Victor Froelicher, MD;
Lars Osterberg, MD;
Barry Franklin, PhD;
Jeff West, MD;
Eddie Atwood, MD
Arch Intern Med. 2001;161:2239-2244.
ABSTRACT
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Background The recent American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association
exercise testing guidelines provided equations to calculate treadmill scores
and recommended their use to improve the predictive accuracy of the standard
exercise test. However, if physicians can estimate the probability of coronary
artery disease as well as the scores can, there would be no reason to add
this complexity to test interpretation. To compare the exercise test scores
with physician's estimation of disease probability, we used clinical, exercise
test, and coronary angiographic data to compute the recommended scores and
print patient summaries and treadmill reports.
Objective To determine whether exercise test scores can be as effective as expert
cardiologists in diagnosing coronary disease.
Methods Five hundred ninety-nine consecutive male patients without previous
myocardial infarction with a mean ± SD age of 59 ± 11 years
were considered for this analysis. With angiographic disease defined as any
coronary lumen occlusion of 50% or more, 58% had disease. The clinical/treadmill
test reports were sent to expert cardiologists and to 2 other groups, including
randomly selected cardiologists and internists, who classified the patients
as having high, low, or intermediate probability of disease and estimated
a numerical probability from 0% to 100%.
Results Forty-five expert cardiologists returned estimates on 336 patients,
37 randomly chosen practicing cardiologists returned estimates on 129 patients,
29 randomly chosen practicing internists returned estimates on 106 patients,
13 academic cardiologists returned estimates on 102 patients, and 27 academic
internists returned estimates on 174 patients. When probability estimates
were compared, the scores were superior to all physician groups (0.76 area
under the receiver operating characteristic curve to 0.70 for experts
[P = .046], 0.73 to 0.58 for cardiologists [P = .003], and
0.76 to 0.61 for internists [P = .006]). Using a probability cut
point of greater than 70% for abnormal, predictive accuracy was 69% for scores
compared with 64% for experts, 63% to 62% for cardiologists, and 70% to 57%
for internists.
Conclusion Although most similar to the disease estimates of the presence of clinically
significant angiographic coronary artery disease provided by the expert cardiologists,
the scores outperformed the nonexpert physicians.
INTRODUCTION
CLINICAL and exercise test scores can enhance the decision-making process
regarding whether a patient with symptoms possibly due to coronary artery
disease should undergo coronary angiography.1-2
The scores help make it less likely that individuals without coronary artery
disease will be referred for unnecessary cardiac catheterization. By providing
a second opinion, scores also help nonspecialists make more appropriate decisions
regarding referral to a specialist. Thus, exercise test scores can provide
a means to see that expensive technology is properly used and that access
to specialized therapy is ensured.
Besides providing increased predictive accuracy, scores eliminate physician
bias and lessen the variability of decision making.3-4
Physicians do not always follow a totally rational decision-making process,
but often make clinical decisions based on personal experience and heuristics.5 By eliminating the intuitive aspect of decision making,
scores can provide an unbiased evaluation. Although the value of exercise
testing scores to help physicians has been documented,6
many physicians remain skeptical of the accuracy of scores and prefer to rely
on the results of more expensive tests in making their decisions. This skepticism
remains despite data demonstrating that scores improve the diagnostic characteristics
of exercise tests and predict the presence of coronary disease as well as
or better than echocardiographic or nuclear tests.7
To resolve this skepticism, we performed an analysis to compare the diagnostic
accuracy of exercise scores with that of cardiologists and generalists.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Patients were selected from a database of the last 2000 consecutive
male patients who underwent clinical evaluation, exercise testing, and coronary
angiography at the Long Beach and Palo Alto Veteran Affairs medical centers
in Long Beach and Palo Alto, Calif, respectively. Patients with previous cardiac
surgery or interventions, valvular heart disease, left bundle branch block,
more than 1 mm depression, or Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome on their resting
electrocardiogram were excluded from the study. Previous cardiac surgery was
the predominant reason for exclusion of patients. We then selected all patients
who were referred to evaluate chest pain possibly due to coronary disease
and who had complete data and coronary angiography within 4 months of the
exercise treadmill test. As is the case for clinical observational studies
such as this, there was no attempt to remove workup bias. To avoid falsely
increasing the accuracy of the exercise treadmill test, we excluded patients
with a previous myocardial infarction by history or diagnostic Q wave, leaving
a target population of 599 patients.
Physicians who also examined the patients recorded with the use of computerized
forms a thorough clinical history, including medications and risk factors,
prospectively at the time of exercise treadmill testing.8-9
EXERCISE TESTING
Patients underwent symptom-limited treadmill testing with the US Air
Force School of Aerospace Medicine10 or an
individualized ramp treadmill protocol.11 Before
ramp testing, the patients were given a questionnaire to estimate the patient's
exercise capacity before the test. This allowed most patients to reach maximal
exercise at approximately 10 minutes.12 Visual
ST-segment depression was measured at the J junction and corrected for pre-exercise
ST-segment depression while standing; ST slope was measured during the following
60 milliseconds and classified as up-sloping, horizontal, or down-sloping.
Slope was coded as 1 for horizontal, 2 for down-sloping, and 0 for normal
slope (ie, up-sloping or ST-segment depression of less than 0.5 mm). The ST
response considered was the most horizontal or down-sloping ST-segment depression
in any lead, except aVR during exercise or recovery. An abnormal response
was defined as 1 mm or more of horizontal or down-sloping ST-segment depression.
No test result was classified as indeterminate,13
medications were not withheld, and a maximal heart rate target was not used
as an end point.14 The exercise tests were
performed, analyzed, and reported per standard protocol with a computerized
database (EXTRA; Mosby Publishers, Chicago, Ill).15
Decisions for cardiac catheterization were consistent with clinical practice.
CORONARY ANGIOGRAPHY
Coronary artery narrowing was visually estimated and expressed as percentage
of lumen diameter stenosis. Patients with 50% or greater narrowing in 1 or
more of the following were considered to have significant angiographic coronary
artery disease: the left anteriordescending, left circumflex, or right coronary
arteries or their major branches or the left main coronary artery. The 50%
criterion was chosen to be consistent with the cooperative trialist's choice.16
PATIENT DATA SHEET
Reports of the patient information and treadmill test were then generated
from the database. The results of the coronary angiography were excluded from
the data sheet to blind the physician interpreter. The patient data sheet
provided the information traditionally used by physicians to assess whether
a patient presenting with possible coronary artery disease should undergo
coronary angiography.
The studies were randomly divided into 78 groups of 12 studies. Each
reviewer was sent the data sheets, a return envelope, and a cover letter,
which explained the goals of the experiment and guidelines on assigning a
patient to the high, intermediate, or low probability group for any coronary
disease. We selected 110 cardiologists who were considered experts on the
basis of their authorship of exercise testing or angiographic studies. The
experts were sent 12 studies each. A 40% response rate resulted in a total
of 336 studies filled out by 45 expert cardiologists.
A similar approach was taken with random cardiologists. The random cardiologists
were nonacademic practicing cardiologists selected at random from a current
membership directory of the American College of Cardiology. The cardiologists
were selected as random cardiologists if they were not associated with a university
or hospital and were not fellows in training, to distinguish them from the
expert cardiologists. To increase the rate of participation in the study,
only 6 data sheets of the group of 12 were sent to each random cardiologist.
Approximately 400 random cardiologists were sent a packet of studies; 37 cardiologists
responded, for a return rate of approximately 10% with 129 studies returned.
A group of random internists were also included for comparison. They
were nonacademic practicing internists selected from the 1997 and 1998 official
American Board of Medical Specialists directory of board-certified medical
specialists. Those associated with a university or hospital were excluded.
The randomly selected internists were then sent the same group of studies
that were sent to the random cardiologists. Approximately 400 random internists
were sent a packet of studies; 29 internists responded, for a return rate
of 8% with 106 studies returned.
The final 2 groups of physicians were the local academic cardiologists
and the local academic internists. We recruited colleagues at the Palo Alto
Veterans Affairs Health Care Center, Palo Alto, Calif, and William Beaumont
Hospital, Royal Oak, Mich, to participate and asked them to complete 12 studies
each. Thirteen cardiologists returned data sheets on 102 patients, and 27
internists returned data sheets on 174 patients. The response rates were 40%
and 75%, respectively.
PHYSICIAN PARTICIPATION INSTRUCTIONS
Physicians were asked to classify the patient as having a high probability,
intermediate probability, or low probability of having clinically significant
coronary disease. The physicians were requested to make this evaluation based
on the following criteria for stratification: low probability: patient is
reassured that symptoms are most likely not due to coronary disease; intermediate
probability: other tests, even possibly angiography, indicated to clarify
diagnosis and antianginal medications tried; and high probability: antianginal
treatment indicated and angiography may be required if severe disease is likely
and an intervention is clinically warranted. Physicians were also requested
to provide a numerical percentage as their estimate of the probability that
the patient had clinically significant coronary disease.
SCORES
The clinical and exercise test data were input into the following equation
to generate 3 probability estimates:
Probability = 1 / [1 + e-(a + bx + cy
. . . )],
where e is the natural log, a is the intercept, b and c are coefficients, and x and y are variable values.
The appropriate coefficients and variables were from the 3 equations
included in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association
exercise testing guidelines.1 The variables
included age, symptoms, risk factors, and exercise test responses, which were
derived from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Score, the Simplified VA Score, the
Detrano Score, or the Morise Score.
VA Score
The pre-exercise test equation,17 including
the chosen variables and their coefficients and the constant, is as follows:
-2.1 + (0.03 x Age) - (0.4 x Symptoms)
+ (0.8 x Diabetes) + (0.4 x Hypercholesterolemia) + (0.01 x
Pack-years) + (0.7 x Resting ST Depression in Millimeters).
The postexercise test equation, including the chosen variables, their
coefficients, and the constant, is as follows:
-1.2 + (3.3 x Pretest) + (0.5 x Exercise ST
Depression in Millimeters) +(0.6 x ST Slope) - (0.16 x Metabolic
Equivalents) - (0.5 x Exercise Angina),
where pretest is a number between 0 and 1 generated by the pretest equation.
Simplified VA Score
The simplified VA score18 is as follows:
(6 x Maximal Heart Rate) + (5 x ST Depression Code)
+ (4 x Age Code) + (Angina Pectoris Code) + (Hypercholesterolemia) +
(Diabetes) + (Treadmill Angina Index).
Detrano Score
Detrano et al19 included 3549 patients
from 8 institutions in the United States and Europe who underwent exercise
testing and angiography between 1978 and 1989. Disease was defined as greater
than 50% diameter narrowing in at least 1 major coronary arterial branch,
and the prevalence of disease according to this criterion was 64%. The selected
Detrano equation components are as follows:
1.9 + (0.025 x Age) - (0.6 x Sex) - (0.1
x Symptoms) - (0.05 x Metabolic Equivalents) - (0.02
x Maximal Heart Rate) + (0.36 x Exercise-Induced Angina) + (0.6
x ST Depression in Millimeters).
Sex was coded as 1 for female and -1 for male. Symptoms were classified
into the 4 categories of typical, atypical, nonanginal pain, and no pain and
coded with the values 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Exercise angina was coded
as 1 for presence and -1 for absence.
Morise Score
Morise et al20 studied 915 consecutive
patients without a history of previous myocardial infarction or coronary artery
bypass surgery who were referred to the exercise laboratory at West Virginia
University Medical Center, Morgantown, between June 1981 and December 1994
for evaluation of coronary disease. All patients had coronary angiography
within 3 months of the exercise test. The patients were classified as having
disease if there was at least a 50% lumen diameter narrowing in 1 or more
vessels, and using this criterion, the prevalence of disease in their population
was 41%. Morise et al generated both pre-exercise and postexercise logistic
regression equations. The Morise pre-exercise test intercept and variables
are as follows:
-3.6 + (0.08 x Age) - (1.3 x Sex) + (0.6
x Symptoms) + (0.7 x Diabetes) + (0.3 x Smoking) -
(1.5 x Body Surface Area) + (0.50 x Estrogen) + (0.3 x Number
of Risk Factors) - (0.40 x Resting Electrocardiogram).
Sex was coded as 1 for female and 0 for male. Symptoms were classified
into the 4 categories of typical, atypical, nonanginal pain, and no pain and
coded with the values 4, 3, 2, and 1, respectively. Diabetes was coded as
1 if present and 0 if absent. Smoking was coded as 2 for current smoking,
1 for any previous smoking, and 0 for never smoked. Estrogen was coded as
0 for men and, for women, 1 for estrogen-negative (postmenopausal and no estrogen)
and -1 for estrogen-positive (premenopausal or taking estrogen). Risk
factors included history of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and obesity
(body mass index [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square
of height in meters], 27). Resting electrocardiogram was coded as 0 if
normal and 1 if there were QRS or ST-T wave abnormalities.
The Morise posttest equation is as follows:
-0.12 + (4.5 x Pretest) + (0.37 x ST Depression
in Millimeters) + (1.0 x ST Slope) - (0.4 x Negative ST) -
(0.016 x Maximal Heart Rate).
Pretest is the pretest probability (0 to 1) derived from the pretest
equation. ST depression in millimeters was coded as 0 for women. ST slope
was coded as 1 for down-sloping and 0 for up-sloping or horizontal. Negative
ST was coded as 1 if ST depression was less than 1 mm of depression horizontal
or down-sloping or if ST depression was less than 1.5 mm of up-sloping.
Consensus of Scores
Our group previously validated a means to make predictive equations
more portable and self-calibrating by requiring a consensus for patient classification
as to risk of coronary disease.18-20
These studies used 2 thresholds of each of the computer-generated probability
scores to separate the population into 3 groups: low probability (prevalence
of coronary disease, <5%), intermediate probability (prevalence of coronary
disease, 5%-70%), and high probability (prevalence of coronary disease, >70%).
Patients were classified as having low or high probability if at least 2 of
the 3 equations agreed, ie, there was a consensus by majority. This approach
avoids difficulties due to differences in variable collection, test method,
missing data, and disease prevalence.
DATA ANALYSIS
The numerical probability must have a cut point to separate normal and
abnormal results to calculate test diagnostic characteristics. A 70% probability
was established as the cut point for the physician estimates, with predictions
greater than or equal to 70% indicating that the patient has coronary disease
and predictions less than 70% indicating that the patient does not have coronary
disease.
The probability predictions for the 5 groups of physicians were entered
into the database and compared against the angiographic results of the patients.
Using the 70% cut point, the diagnostic accuracy of predicting angiographic
coronary disease was established for each of the 5 groups of physicians. The
predictive accuracy of a group of physicians is determined by adding the number
of true-positives results and true-negative results and then dividing the
sum by the total number of patients. A true-positive result in the probability
percentage section results from the physician giving a probability greater
than or equal to 70% for a patient with coronary disease. A true-negative
result is when the physician gives a probability less than 70% for a patient
without coronary disease. A false-positive result is when the physician gives
a probability greater than or equal to 70% for a patient without coronary
disease. A false-negative result is when the physician gives a probability
less than 70% for a patient with coronary disease. The same was done with
the average of the probability estimates generated by the 3 equations. The
probabilities computed from the scores and their averages were also used to
construct receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for comparison of
their diagnostic (discriminatory) characteristics. P
values were calculated from the standard errors generated for each area under
the ROC curve.
RESULTS
Table 1 describes our patient
population (N = 599). No significant differences were found in the 5 different
physician data sheet samples.
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Table 1. Clinical Characteristics of the 599 Study Patients
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PREDICTIVE ACCURACY
Table 2 shows the predictive
accuracy using the 70% probability cut point for the 5 groups of physicians
compared with the average of the 3 scores in the same patients reviewed by
each physician group.
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Table 2. The Predictive Accuracy of the Physician Groups Compared With
the Scores
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Consensus provided a significantly higher predictive accuracy than did
the physicians (69% vs 63%, P<.01). These data,
however, do not allow comparison among the different groups, because each
group of physicians provided probability percentages for different patients.
PROBABILITY CLASSIFICATION
The next area of concern is the determination of the probability stratification
of each patient. Per the definition provided to the reviewers, this demonstrates
the accuracy with which a physician determines whether a patient should undergo
further testing. The categories in which a patient could have been placed
are high probability, intermediate probability, and low probability. Because
a patient classified in the intermediate-probability group will undergo additional
diagnostic tests to determine the presence of coronary disease, it is difficult
to draw any conclusions from the data for patients in this category. However,
high-probability and low-probability categories provide critical data. Patients
who are in the low-probability group probably do not have cardiac catheterization
or restriction of their activities. If the patient has coronary disease and
was in the low-probability group, an incorrect assessment of the likelihood
of disease may result in a cardiac event that could have been avoided. Also,
if a physician considers a patient without coronary disease to have high probability
of disease, he/she may undergo needless costly procedures that are not without
risk. Table 3 provides a comparison
among the 5 groups of physicians and scores in the number of patients with
coronary disease who were considered to have low probability of disease divided
by the total number of patients with coronary disease. The results show that
scores performed better than did the physicians, with a sensitivity of 90%
or more. A similar table was constructed for patients who did not have coronary
disease but who were considered to have high probability of developing the
disease, and the scores outperformed the physicians, with a specificity of
approximately 90%. In addition, the scores performed better than did all 5
groups of physicians by putting a higher percentage of patients with coronary
disease into the high-probability category.
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Table 3. Comparison of the 5 Groups of Physicians and Scores for the
Classification of Patients With Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) as Having Low
Probability of Having Coronary Disease
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ROC CURVES
The ROC curves were plotted for the physician groups and the amount
of horizontal ST depression, and the average of the 3 scores was used for
consensus (Figure 1). The area under
the curve of the scores was significantly greater than that for the other
methods for diagnosis. This can also be seen in Table 4.
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Receiver operating characteristic curves for the expert cardiologists
estimates, the amount of horizontal ST depression, and the average of the
3 scores used for consensus. Straight line represents no descriminating value.
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Table 4. Comparison of Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic
Curves for Physician Groups With Treadmill Scores
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COMMENT
Although scores based on exercise testing data have been advocated for
years, only 3 previous studies have compared them with physician estimates
of disease. Detrano et al21 performed one of
the first such studies. They derived a score for estimating probabilities
of significant and severe coronary disease, then they validated and compared
it with the assessments of cardiologists. The score performed at least as
well as did the physicians when the latter knew the identity of the patients.
The clinicians were more accurate when they did not know the identity of the
subjects but worked from tabulated objective data. Detrano and colleagues
concluded that the application of scores or consultation with cardiologists
not directly involved with patient management might result in more rational
assessments and decision making. Hlatky et al22
validated 2 scores by comparing their diagnostic accuracy with that of cardiologists.
Ninety-one cardiologists participated in the study; each evaluated the clinical
summaries of 8 randomly selected patients who had complete evaluations, including
coronary angiography. The scores outperformed these cardiologists. A third
study23 considered scores for prognosis (rather
than diagnosis), with clinical summaries for 100 patients sent to 5 senior
cardiologists at 1 center. Again, the scores outperformed these cardiologists.
Our study was larger and included different groups of physicians, validating
the results of these earlier studies that showed that scores can predict angiographic
results as well as physicians can.
We are not advocating that these scores replace physician judgment.
The scores can be thought of as providing a readily available second opinion
or consultation. The scores can also reassure nonspecialists that their decision
to either manage the treatment of a patient themselves or refer that patient
to a cardiologist is consistent with medical knowledge. Certainly, if a patient's
symptoms reoccur or are not manageable, reassessment by the physician will
lead to referral. In addition, by using the scores to objectively stratify
probability, a management strategy becomes available that is more practical
than the traditional interpretation of abnormal or normal exercise test results.
Because the ability of scores based on any test to detect coronary disease
remains imperfect, physicians will always be paramount in the decision process.
However, decision making has been greatly improved in a wide range of endeavors
through the use of scores.2
Although numerous studies have shown that scores enhance the discriminatory
power of the standard, inexpensive, and widely available exercise test, scores
have not been widely applied. There has always been a tendency to replace
the old with the new in medicine despite evidence of only marginal improvement.24 Although imaging has certain advantages in patients
with certain electrocardiogram abnormalities and for localization of ischemia,
it is better applied in patients with chest pain when these advantages are
the issues at hand. Certainly, most initial testing is best accomplished with
the less expensive technology. We hope now that we have validated scores by
comparing them with the interpretive abilities of a large number of expert
cardiologists, physicians and other health care practitioners have the evidence
to apply the strategy we have suggested. Although not designed as a cost-efficacy
analysis, simple mathematical modeling allows demonstration of considerable
savings. Also, our approach follows current health care mandates to empower
nonspecialists yet ensure access to specialty care.
Legal liability and related issues are possible reasons that nonspecialists
may refer patients to cardiologists, who may then recommend catheterization
for those patients who have a low to intermediate probability of coronary
disease. The decisions generated by the scores are not influenced by such
liability or recent personal experiences with a rare bad outcome. Since the
scores are objective and cited in the guidelines, they can shield physicians
from such concerns.
Limitations to our study include its retrospective design, workup bias,
lack of outcomes data, lack of women, and no formal cost-efficacy component.
Another consideration is that the physicians did not interview or examine
the patients themselves. However, we hope that our findings will encourage
investigators to perform studies that overcome these limitations. At first,
the low response rates seem to be a limitation, but if anything, they favor
the physician groups, since those physicians with experience and confidence
in their ability to diagnose coronary disease would be more likely to respond.
Although the consensus of scores we applied could be considered complicated,
a single score, such as our simple score,18
validated in a clinical setting, would be just as effective.
In our study, scores did as well as or better than physicians in estimating
the probability of clinically significant angiographic coronary artery disease.
AUTHOR INFORMATION
Accepted for publication January 18, 2001.
Presented as an abstract at the Scientific Sessions of the American
Heart Association, Atlanta, Ga, November 8, 1999.
Corresponding author and reprints: Victor Froelicher, MD, Cardiology
Division (111C), Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 3801 Miranda
Ave, Palo Alto, CA 94304 (e-mail: vicmd{at}aol.com and Web site http://www.cardiology.org).
From the Stanford University Cardiology Department at Palo Alto Veterans
Affairs Health Care Center, Palo Alto, Calif (Mr Lipinski and Drs Do, Froelicher,
Osterberg, West, and Atwood); the Cardiac Rehabilitation and Exercise Laboratories,
William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, Mich (Dr Franklin); and the Department
of Physiology, Wayne State University, School of Medicine, Detroit, Mich (Dr
Franklin).
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